China is likely to consolidate its leadership role among Africa's foreign partners and proceed from its traditional principle of non-interference in internal affairs to their careful moderation in order to safeguard its long-term economic interests. India's influence will grow, also the other players, such as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. The influence and involvement of USA, Japan, Brazil, Israel, and Iran will decrease or remain at the level of the past decade. The role of former colonial powers (as France) will continue to decline. Continental Europe will retain its chances of preserving some influence in Africa. In this regard Germany will be chasing an axial role in a long-term EU policy towards Africa. Among the G7 countries, only Germany may boost its influence and presence; Italy and the UK are likely remain at the same level; the influence of France, USA, Canada, and Japan will fall.
In military-strategic terms, fierce rivalry in the Indian Ocean will be of the greatest importance. The interests of China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Arab countries, Iran, as well as France, the United States and other players are expected to clash. In this regard, the above powers will spend significant resources on solidifying their foothold along the entire coast of East Africa, from Egypt to South Africa. The military-strategic importance of Indian Ocean islands will continue to rise.