Foreword
In October 2019, the first ever in the history Russia–Africa Summit will be held in Sochi on the Black Sea. Invited are all the leaders of African states and intergovernemental ogratisations. Russian president Vladimir Putin pledged the countries interest and determination to host and organize the event that can mark the beginning of a new stage for Russia–Africa partnership. The Russia–Africa business forum with over 10 thousand participants will precede the Summit.

Intexpertise LLC in partnership the Roscongress Foundation brings together the international expert community in order to draw up the Russia–Africa Shared Vision 2030 roadmap to discuss it at the Russia–Africa events in 2019 and finalize for presentation at the Russia–Africa summit in Sochi, October 24. The expert Report will summarize the state of affairs in the main areas of Russia-Africa relations and identify the key challenges and most promising avenues for cooperation in the next 10 years.

Following the Summit, a number of decisions designed to frame Russia-Africa relations, policies and guidelines for the state development institutions are expected to be introduced. The Russia–Africa Shared Vision 2030 Report will include the list of recommendations to be used for shaping both the agenda of the Summit and Economic Forum and the framework of cooperation for the next 10 years. The Report aims to ground the stakeholders' long-term strategizing documents consolidating Russia–Africa relations.

Russia-Africa Shared Vision 2030 is aggregating the experience of cooperation, typical mistakes, failures and achievements of Russian and African parties in dealing with each other. The Report includes the comprehensive analysis of the bilateral relations, examines hundreds of relevant indicators alongside the institutional framework for cooperation. Based on the data provided, the international team of experts is developing the forecasts for the Russia–Africa relations towards 2030.

Leading Russian experts on Africa involved in the preparation of the Report are Dr. Alexey Vasilyev, Honorary president of the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Vladimir Kazimirov, Head of Regional Division, Roscongress Foundation, responsible for Africa, Middle East, and South Asia. The report is edited by Evgeny Korendyasov, a senior research fellow at the Centre for the Study of the Russian-African Relations and African States' Foreign Policy at the Russian Academy of Sciences and others. The Report's team now comprises more than 20 experts and continues to grow. A distinctive feature of the Report is the involvement of African experts and leaders of African countries' expert communities, whose participation will ensure the fairness of the assessments made.

Business community representatives and civil servants having their own experience of working with African markets, and Russian partners, also act as the experts of the Report. Their participation makes it possible to disclose all the bilateral relations' problems and develop future perspectives taking into account the private companies' interests and objectives. Gathering proposals and exchanging experience between Russian and African contributors will shape the subsequent discussions at the Russian-African Economic Forum and Summit in Sochi.

Upon completion, the Report will be circulated to all concerned governmental and non-governmental organizations of Russia and Africa to become their Handbook for the interaction in the next coming years.

In order to ensure the quality of the Report, Intexpertise LLC, in partnership with the Roscongress Foundation, plans to hold a series of expert gatherings (round tables) in 2019 aimed at consolidating the expert's opinions by discussing and criticizing the draft sections of the Report. Themes of the events correspond to the main blocks of the Report: "Economic Cooperation and Export", "Energy", "Industrial Export", "Security Cooperation", "Financial Market and Investments" and "Education". Upon the discussions, the sections of the expert Report will be finalized and expanded; as well as the outcome of the discussion will be reflected in supplementary reports published on the RA Vision official websites and beyond.

We invite all the relevant stakeholders to contribute to the Report and become our partners in delivering the proposals for Russia–Africa agenda.
Major trends of Africa's development to be considered in shaping policies
Environmental Challenges
According to projections by RA Vision experts, environmental challenges will play a decisive role in Africa's political agenda in the next 10 years. The effects of climate change, habitat destruction, and biodiversity loss will be aggravated in the continent. Ordinary citizens and the political class will take these threats as key problems that require urgent attention.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that by 2030 Africa may lose two-thirds of its arable land to desertification. Nonetheless, with the relatively cheap irrigation solutions for small and medium farms, up to 3 million hectares can be turned into useful and arable lands within the same time period (only 5% of agricultural land is now irrigated). In addition, investments in African irrigation can reach 33% yield. The struggle for the preservation of the area and beneficial use of the land would guide the development of the continent in the next 10 years.

Preserving the key elements of the environment will become the blueprint for the political agenda of both local authorities and communities, as well as of multinational organizations. The following issues: access to safe drinking water, waste management, sustainable environmental management, and agriculture, along with green energy innovations and sustainable municipal infrastructure will all take leading positions in decision-making.

The extracitve industries will continue to persist as the major threat and evel for the growing and transforming African economies, with their corporate interersts being often different from those of states, communities and the environment.
Human capital
Africa continues to experience high rates of population growth. By 2030, the continent will be home to 1.7 billion people against the 1.2 billion in 2015. However, the UN expects Africa's growth rate to slow down a little— from 2.59% per year in 2010-2015 to 2.25% by 2030. With 500 million more Africans over 15 years, coupled with the challenges of creating a favorable living environment in Africa, globally significant consumer and B2B markets will emerge. Addressing new threats such as demographic pressure on social systems, on labor markets and on the environment, would require major infrastructure investments. Such investments would be an important driver for African imports.

Population growth in Africa is already having a major influence on policy-making in the Mediterranean region and the European Union as a whole. Managing migration, creating jobs and securing a comfortable environment in Africa are the key challenges that would face European politicians for decades to come. African migration so far has predominantly occurred within the continent. As of 2017, out of 36.3 million international migrants originating in Africa, 19.4 million migrated to other African countries, 9.3 million to Europe, and 4.4 million to Asia.

Africa plays a very limited role in international division of labor. Except for South Africa and some North African countries, African economies do not belong to the global chains of labor- and capital-intensive sectors. Global cooperation, direct foreign investment, and a better regulatory environment are all laying the foundation for Africa's transformation into the world's future "assembly plant".
Investment Destinations
Going by a consolidated assessment by experts from RAVision 2030, infrastructure (electric power industry, urban economy, water supply, export/import transport corridors), as well as digital economy and medicine will be the key investment areas in 2020-2030.

The experts further suggest that local exchange trading systems (LETS) will integrate with banking products, forming a new economic paradigm which may be referred to as the digital subsistence farming. Farmers and local communities will be able to access digital platforms for precision farming and animal husbandry. Capacity to promote such platforms will determine the success of external players, including producers of fertilizers, seeds, vaccines, etc.

Digital technologies will also help the traditionally strong banking sector to better handle risk assessment, reduce interest rates and overcome chronic shortage of high-quality borrowers in domestic markets. Banks will play a central role in reducing capital flight, which has been, over the past 70 years, a major factor in eroding the economic outlookfor Africa's leading economies.
Politics
In Africa, government institutions will be gradually transforming from the regulators of the foreign trade to the open digital services for their people.

Digital technologies will open up new opportunities that would strengthen government institutions and enable them to be on an equal footing with international business. Everywhere, nations will develop environmental and technical supervision institutions, land inventories, registries, and other big data management tools.

The digital transformtion driven by the states will also strengthen both — their local communities and interstate bureaucracy. The Internet and communication technologies are giving communities more options to better protect their interests when engaging with corporations.

The African Union will play an increasingly crucial role in the political process and in peace-making initiatives. In terms of the economy, the Union will play a key role in matters of certification, development and implementation of standards, regulation coordination, including antitrust regulation. The frameworks of the continental free trade zone, the single African market, will be gradually formed.
International Environment
China is likely to consolidate its leadership role among Africa's foreign partners and proceed from its traditional principle of non-interference in internal affairs to their careful moderation in order to safeguard its long-term economic interests. India's influence will grow, also the other players, such as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. The influence and involvement of USA, Japan, Brazil, Israel, and Iran will decrease or remain at the level of the past decade. The role of former colonial powers (as France) will continue to decline. Continental Europe will retain its chances of preserving some influence in Africa. In this regard Germany will be chasing an axial role in a long-term EU policy towards Africa. Among the G7 countries, only Germany may boost its influence and presence; Italy and the UK are likely remain at the same level; the influence of France, USA, Canada, and Japan will fall.

In military-strategic terms, fierce rivalry in the Indian Ocean will be of the greatest importance. The interests of China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Arab countries, Iran, as well as France, the United States and other players are expected to clash. In this regard, the above powers will spend significant resources on solidifying their foothold along the entire coast of East Africa, from Egypt to South Africa. The military-strategic importance of Indian Ocean islands will continue to rise.