Foreword
Intexpertise LLC in partnership with the Roscongress Foundation brought together the international expert community in order to discuss the experience of Russia-Africa relations and identify the key challenges and most promising avenues for cooperation in the coming years. The outcome of expertise and discussions was summarized in some papers distributed across wider expert communities and various stakeholders to obtain their feedback.

Following the Summit, a number of decisions designed to frame Russia-Africa relations, policies and guidelines for the state development institutions are expected to be introduced. The Russia–Africa Shared Vision 2030 Report is not an official programme or declaration. The Report does not necessarily reflect the official position of Russian or any African government. The expert team however shares the hope that the analysis and forecasts produced and presented will be used by the stakeholders in their decision-making process. In the Report we address all sorts of stakeholders: private entities, non-governmental organisations, governments and government-owned corporations, research institutions and even individuals.

Russia-Africa Shared Vision 2030 is aggregating the experience of cooperation, typical mistakes, failures and achievements of Russian and African parties in dealing with each other. The Report includes the analysis of bilateral relations, examines hundreds of relevant indicators alongside the institutional framework for cooperation. Based on the data provided, the international team of experts is developing the forecasts to identify the most promising areas for cooperation.

Leading Russian experts on Africa involved in the preparation of the Report are Dr. Alexey Vasilyev, Honorary president of the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Evgeny Korendyasov, a senior research fellow at the Centre for the Study of the Russian-African Relations and African States' Foreign Policy at the Russian Academy of Sciences and others. The Report's team now comprises more than 20 experts and continues to grow. A distinctive feature of the Report is the involvement of African experts and leaders of African countries' expert communities, whose participation will ensure the fairness of the assessments made.

Business community representatives and civil servants having their own experience of working with African markets, and Russian partners, also act as the experts of the Report. Their participation makes it possible to disclose all the bilateral relations' problems and develop future perspectives taking into account the private companies' interests and objectives. Gathering proposals and exchanging experience between Russian and African contributors will precede the discussions at the Russian-African Economic Forum and Summit in Sochi.

Upon completion, the Report will be circulated to all concerned governmental and non-governmental organizations of Russia and Africa to become their Handbook for the interaction in the next coming years.
Major Trends of Africa's Development to be Considered in Shaping Policies
Environmental Challenges
Environmental challenges will play a decisive role in Africa's political agenda during the next 10 years. The effects of climate change, habitat destruction and biodiversity loss will be aggravated in the continent. Ordinary citizens and the political class will take these threats as key problems that require urgent attention.

Environmental challenges will play a decisive role in Africa's political agenda in the next 10 years

The availability of potable water will become a key challenge to overcome for all African subregions, from Algeria in the North to Namibia and South Africa in the South. Governments will be investing in freshwater search, irrigation systems, freshwater distribution networks, sewers and sewage treatment facilities, and even freshwater import terminals.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that, by 2030, Africa may lose two-thirds of its arable land to desertification. Nonetheless, with affordable irrigation solutions for small and medium-size farms, up to 3 million hectares can be turned into useful and arable lands within the same time period (only 5% of agricultural land is currently irrigated). In addition, investments in African irrigation can reach a rate of return of 33%. The struggle for the preservation of the area and beneficial use of the land will guide the development of the continent over the next 10 years.

Preserving key elements of the environment will become the blueprint for the political agenda for both local authorities and communities, as well as for multinational organizations. Аccess to safe drinking water, waste management, sustainable environmental and agriculture management, along with green energy innovations and sustainable municipal infrastructure will all be driving decision-making.

The UN predicts that by 2030 more than 200 million people in Africa will live in areas with limited access to fresh water. The continent is likely to face large-scale migrations and conflicts in the future, and water will be the major cause for such problems. The coordinated efforts of national governments and their external partners are required to overcome the challenge.

In the next coming years the extractive industries will continue to persist as the major threat for growth and transformation of African economies, with their corporate interests often being different from those of states, communities and the environment.

By 2030 the new approaches, technological solutions and policies ensuring sustainable interaction between infrastructure, people and the environment are to be introduced to overcome the existing challenges and form the ground for the future development. These balancing solutions will shape the new growing industries.

Human Capital
Africa continues to experience high rates of population growth. By 2030, the continent will be home to 1.7 billion people. However, the UN expects Africa's growth rate to slow down a little — from 2.59% per year in 2010-2015 to 2.25% by 2030. With 500 million more Africans over 15 years, coupled with the challenges of creating a favorable living environment in Africa, globally significant consumer and B2B markets will emerge. Addressing new threats such as demographic pressure on social systems, labor markets and the environment, will require major infrastructure investments. Such investments will be an important driver for African imports.

Most experts believe that the rate of population growth will greatly depend on quality of life and the dynamics of urbanisation. Nevertheless, by 2050 five African countries will be listed among the world's top 10 most inhabited countries where about 50% of the global population will live — DR Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Uganda, and Tanzania.

By 2030 the continent's working-age population is set to grow from 370 million adults (13% of the world's working-age population) to 600 million (17%).

Africa has the youngest population in the world. Half of Africa's population is under 20 years old (as opposed to 30 worldwide). By 2030, the proportion of young people among Africans will decline slightly but will reach one-quarter of the total world population under the age of 25 years.

Managing migration, creating jobs and securing a comfortable environment in Africa are the key challenges that will face governments during the coming decade. To date migration in Africa has been mainly internal. As of 2017, out of 36.3 million migrants in Africa, over a half — 19.4 million — have migrated to other African countries, 9.3 million to Europe, and 4.4 million to Asia.

Migration is the natural way of growing influence for the African communities. The diaspora enables access to all kinds of resources, such as capital and knowledge, through networking in horizontal structures. For African countries diasporas are also strengthening their positions in international relations. By 2030 the African diaspora will be a key network connecting the continent to the rest of the world and the key source of Africa's global power.

Africa still plays a very limited role in the international division of labour. Apart from South Africa and some North African countries, African economies do not yet belong to the global chains of labor. Global cooperation, investment, and a better regulatory environment are all required for Africa's transformation into the world's next assembly plant by 2030. Experts agree that Morocco, Egypt, and to a certain extent Algeria, have the potential to host export-oriented assembly industries. A food industry cluster is emerging in the Great Lakes region. However, industrialization is more likely to retain its cluster nature.

By 2030 52% of Africa's working-age adult population will have completed secondary education (only 36% in 2018). Investments in education not only meet the objectives of national development, but also correlate to personal well-being strategies — every extra year spent at school increases future personal income by 11% for boys and 14% for girls.

Africa's participation in the current process of reconfiguring the global division of labour will depend on improving the quality and accessibility of education. Experts predict that by 2030 China could lose 85-100 million labor-intensive workplaces. Some of these workplaces will be replaced by automation and robotization, while the rest would be distributed globally in the new labor markets, with Africa topping the list.

Also the workforce will be required locally for the implementation of housing, infrastructure, and environmental mega-projects. Nevertheless, in 2030 most of the jobs will still be in agriculture. Farming is gradually digitalizing to increase its productivity, — at the same time it is challenged to provide even more jobs by 2030.

Governance and Institutions
In order for African statehood to develop, investments in the digitalization of public services, the deployment of modern decision-making support platforms and registers and data management systems (property registers, business registers, voter lists, industry statistics) is required. Experts note that strategies on the digitalization of the public sector is key to the steady growth of its performance. Digitalization however should not aim at reducing the number of existing jobs but on improving the quality of and increase in the number and coverage of services.

The legacy of colonialism in Africa can be traced in its artificial, and hence conflicting state borders and resource-based economic systems and primarily in the weakness of government institutions at all levels.

Going by the global trend, investments in urban infrastructure and logistics (smart traffic, smart utilities, etc) will become the most important area for investments.

In Africa government institutions will be gradually transforming from regulators of foreign trade to the open digital services for their people.

Government institutions will be transforming from the regulators of the foreign trade to the open digital services

Digital technologies will open up new opportunities that will strengthen government institutions and enable them to be on an equal footing with international business. Everywhere, nations will develop environmental and technical supervision institutions, land inventories, registries, and other big data management tools. And not only for the nation states.

The role of the nation states in Africa in the chain of governance is also changing: some of their responsibilities are being transferred to the African Union and regional associations while the role of local communities in solving everyday problems is also growing. Digitalization provides communities vast opportunities to play more roles and take more responsibilities.

However, only nation states are in a position to steer the process. The digital transformation driven by states will arm both local communities and interstate bureaucracy. For instance, new communication technologies are already providing communities more options to better protect their interests when engaging with corporations, but only nation states have the rights and instruments required to duly protect the interest of communities in their dialog with the corporations.

The African Union will play a greater role in the political process and in peace-making initiatives. In terms of the economy, the Union will play a key role in matters of certification, development and implementation of standards, regulation coordination, including antitrust regulation. The frameworks of the continental free trade zone, the single African market, will be gradually formed. The environmental protection mega-projects are also the domain for AU to perform.
Infrastructure Gap and Development
In order for Africa to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals on clean water supply (equal access to clean drinking water and sanitation) by 2030, it requires $22 billion of annual investment ($15 billion in capital investments and $7 billion in repairs and maintenance). The current level is 13 billion, which is only about half of the amount required.

The actual volume of all infrastructure investments (slightly above $80 billion), with almost $50 billion still being the gap between the minimal sustainable development benchmark of $130 billion and the reality. So experts assume, in their conservative estimate scenario, that the infrastructure construction market in Africa will record $500-600 billion of spending over the next 10 years. However, this will not be enough. With proper support from the banking sector and development institutions investments (and spendings) are to exceed $1 trillion (at current prices) and the return on this investment will be guaranteed by the steadily increasing demand.
Investment Destinations
Hard infrastructure (power sector, urban development, water supply, transport facilities, etc), digital economy and healthcare will be the key investment destinations in Africa for 2020-2030 alongside with agribusiness. In these areas African markets will receive global importance and their key roles in the market strategies of the global players.

Infrastructure, digital economy, and healthcare will become the key investment destinations

The World Bank predicts that the size of Africa's agribusiness sector will reach $1 trillion by 2030. The Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) was launched in 2003 under the "New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD)" initiative. The goal of CAADP is to "eliminate hunger and reduce poverty" by investing in the agribusiness sector (spending at least 10% of national budgets on agriculture).

In the food and other consumer markets there will be competition between global and local players as African markets are not yet consolidated and divided.

The Brookings Institution predicts that, by 2025, consumer expenditure in Africa will reach $2.1 trillion, and by 2030 the figure will be $2.5 trillion. In the consumer expenditure structure food, beverages and tobacco account for $850 billion (against $500 billion in 2011), $83 billion goes to household cleaners (against $36 billion), clothing and footwear take up $68 billion (as against $35 billion), $52 billion for furniture (against $28 billion), while electronics accounts for $20 billion (against $10 billion in 2011).

By 2030, the largest sectors of Africa's B2B market will be agriculture and agribusiness technologies ($915 billion), construction, utilities and transport ($784 billion), manufacturing ($666 billion), wholesale and retail trade ($665 billion), mining ($357 billion), banking and insurance ($249 billion), telecommunications and information technology ($ 79.5 billion).

According to estimates presented in the book "The Next Factory of the World: How Chinese Investment Is Reshaping Africa", there are over 10,000 industrial facilities operating in Africa that were constructed by Chinese private investors. The migration of production from mainland China to Vietnam, Bangladesh and Africa is caused by rising labor costs in China and the prospect of US trade restrictions.

Digital technologies will also help the traditionally strong banking sector to better handle risk assessment, reduce interest rates and overcome the chronic shortage of high-quality borrowers in domestic markets. Banks will play a central role in reducing capital flight which, over the past 70 years, has been a major factor in eroding the economic outlook for Africa's leading economies.

Relatively low returns on government investments, combined with a heavy dependance on them, has long been one of the key obstacles to economic growth and development. However, recent years have seen the unprecedented growth of the private sector in Africa, and the focus on investment in fixed assets is shifting towards B2B. By 2030, Africa's B2B market will grow to $4.2 trillion (currently $1.5 trillion). Obviously it is private business that will drive economic growth in 2020-30. Some private groups of African origin are also becoming prominent global players.
Digital Economy
By 2030, digitalisation in Africa will become a major direction for investment. For example, projects on the registration and digital identification of citizens alone will attract at least $6 billion. The main source of finance for digitalisation projects will be budget allocations supported by national banks and international funds.

Digital platforms will play a key role in agriculture, which will continue to be the main employer. Local exchange trading systems (LETS) will integrate with the advanced banking products, forming a new economic paradigm which may be referred to as 'digital subsistence farming'. It will give farmers and local communities access to precision farming, husbandry, fish farming and forestry. The capacity to deal with such platforms and promote them will determine the long-term success of external actors, including producers of fertilisers, seeds, vaccines, etc.

Africa is a field of opportunities for digital startups as in most cases the market shares there do not follow the global patterns. For example, Africa remains an untapped market for the world's five most popular and best-performing tech companies FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google). Google has given up its leading positions in Africa to Opera and Mozilla Firefox for which the continent now serves as the largest market. Africa can play a role in the emergence of new global players, candidates for "next FAANG", both local and foreign.

Digital technologies will also help the traditionally strong banking sector to better handle risk assessment, reduce interest rates and deal with the chronic shortage of high-quality borrowers in domestic markets. Banks will play a pivotal role in reducing capital flight, which, over the past 70 years, has been a major factor in eroding the economic outlook for Africa's leading economies.
International Environment
No expert disputes the fact that Africa and the African Union will increase its presence and influence in the global affairs as it did in the second decade of the 21st century. Africa will no longer be a trouble maker, but a source of resources — human, natural and creative. The challenge will be to sustain stability while growing and avoid «over-protection» by foreign partners?

China is going to contest for the leading role among Africa's foreign partners and is likely proceed from its traditional principle of non-interference in internal affairs to their careful moderation in order to safeguard its long-term economic interests. India's influence will grow, as well as that of Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. The influence and involvement of USA, Japan, Brazil, Israel, and Iran is likely to decrease or remain at the level of the past decade. The role of former colonial powers (such as France) will continue to decline. Continental Europe will retain its chances of preserving some influence in Africa. In this regard Germany will be chasing an axial role in a long-term EU policy towards Africa. Among the G7 countries, only Germany has a potential to extend its influence and presence; Italy and the UK are likely to remain at the same level; the influence of France, USA, Canada, and Japan will relatively decrease.

In military-strategic terms, rivalry in the Indian Ocean basin will have growing significance. The interests of China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Arab countries, Iran, as well as France, the United States and other players are expected to clash. In this regard, these countries will spend significant resources on solidifying their foothold along the entire coast of East Africa, from Egypt to South Africa. The military-strategic importance of the Indian Ocean islands will continue to increase.

According to a study by the Pew Research Center, the Muslim population of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase from 242 million in 2010 to 386 million in 2030, while the Muslim population in North Africa is projected to surge from 195 million to 253 million accordingly. By 2030, Africa — mostly Sub-Saharan Africa — will be home to nearly a quarter of all Muslims worldwide.

Two African countries, Nigeria and Egypt, were included in the Next-11 group (also called N-11) by Goldman Sachs analyst Jim O'Neill, the author of the original BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) idea. The N-11 is the most likely engine of the world economy in the first half of the 21st century. In terms of economic growth and investment African representatives (usually Egypt, Nigeria and/or South Africa) are part of the most promising associations of emerging markets countries, such as VISTA (Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Argentina), MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey), CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, South Africa), etc.

The consensus position in the UN reform concept that is currently being discussed is to give one or two veto permanent Security Council seats to African States. The issue of granting veto power to new members of the Security Council is not being discussed seriously.